So how are things in Brexit land today? - News Today in World

So how are things in Brexit land today?

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Title : So how are things in Brexit land today?
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news-today.world | Hi guys, I had a conference call with one of my clients in Singapore this morning and he asked me the question, "how are things in Brexit land going?" And of course, if you were to read the headlines today, you might get the feeling that the country is descending into utter chaos now that Theresa May has just survived a no confidence vote and we simply have no idea what the hell is going to happen with Brexit. There is a disconnect between what is going on politically in the country and everyday lives for ordinary people like me. And of course, there's the same thing going on in France right now with the Gilet Jaunes protests which is of course, a major challenge to the presidency of Emmanuel Macron. Watching the news, you might be convinced that France is completely descending into civil war and chaos, so when my French friend Marie returned to Paris to visit her parents last weekend, I was rather concerned and checked in on her. She sent me a laughing emoji and told me that she was enjoying fresh coffee and delicious French pastries with her parents far away from the protests, that life for most ordinary people just go on whilst occasionally checking the news to see what was going on, out of a certain ennui rather than passionate desire for revolution. Her parents were arguing over the choice of the new houseplants in the living room rather than French politics - in short, life is pretty normal for them.
The same thing is going on in London, when I am on social media, I see a lot of my more left-wing friends bemoan the state of British politics, with politicians arguing and fighting amongst themselves rather than focusing on the task at hand - be it to deliver an acceptable Brexit or to give up on the whole stupidity of Brexit altogether but no, I see the politicians are just trying to take advantage of the situation and get rid of their political rivals within their ranks. But let me give you an example to illustrate how a major political story doesn't really affect our daily lives even if they can upset a lot of people: remember how the whole saga involving the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the supreme court of the USA upset a lot of people because it was pretty clear that he was a rapist when he was at high school? Yeah of course, a whole storm exploded over social media and it revealed the deep divisions between the the different factions in American society - some people even took to protesting at the hearing looking into the allegations of rape especially after president Trump personally waded in to discredit the women who were raped by Kvanaugh. whilst it was clear that the whole episode had upset a lot of people, normal life still went on in America regardless: kids went to school, the adults went to work and it was a story that people talked about mostly on social media. Sure I was equally frustrated and outraged when Kavanaugh was eventually appointed, nonetheless this episode didn't stop normal life from continuing in America.

The main reason why Trump is able to stay in office despite the fact that there's almost a weekly political scandal is because things still work in America - you can go to the supermarket and still get your groceries, people still have jobs, the streets are relatively safe and you know that things are going to be the same in the near future. There have only been a few countries where things have well and truly fallen apart in recent years - there's of course Yemen and Syria which have been totally torn apart by civil war, then we have also seen the economic meltdown in Zimbabwe under the dictatorship of Mugabe and of course Venezuela under the extremely corrupt Nicolas Maduro. This has led to a massive exodus of refugees from these countries. Then again, are dictators or corruption necessarily the problem? Actually, no. Take China for example - there's no democracy so Xi Jinping is indeed a dictator and China is a massively corrupt country, yet Chinese society seems pretty stable and generally, the people are happy enough there as things generally do work in China like any other peaceful and prosperous country. Indeed, even without the messiness of democracy, there is still plenty of infighting within the Chinese Communist Party amongst the different factions vying for power. Now the real litmus test for the CCP is whether or not it can contain their quarrels internally or if they allow it to affect the economy, that is when ordinary people will start taking more interest in politics and holding their politicians to account.
So far, the whole Brexit saga has upset a lot of people in the UK the same way the Brett Kavanaugh case has caused a massive storm on social media - but most of the time, my reaction is to simply stay off social media when the debates get too upsetting and just focus on my work instead, which I find actually quite therapeutic because I don't have much influence as an individual over this whole Brexit debacle, but I do have a lot of control over what I do at work so I can take concrete steps to ensure that I can do some very productive things at work. So the key worry about Brexit is how the UK is going to be a poorer country after Brexit - however, it's not like everyone will be hit equally hard. In any case, I work in sales so how much I earn depends on how much I sell (since I get commissions on all sales I make) rather than how the British economy is doing. I'm rather fortunate that a lot of the deals I broker are denominated in US dollars and neither the projects nor the investors are in the UK, so the fact that I am actually here in London is completely incidental to the work that I do. I could be based anywhere in the world and still do what I do - I'm just here because I really like London, that's why I have made this city my home. Is my situation that unique? I don't think so, many people are just like me in the sense that they will vent their frustrations on social media, but then our daily lives are not really that affected.

Let me give you an example of how the media often blows stories out of proportions, creating exaggerated headlines to create 'click bait' type articles. So just today, the BBC has published an article to give the impression that the value of the pound has plummeted to the point where £1 gets you about US$1 - that's only true if you show up at an airport and go to a money changer there, who typically give you a terrible rate. After all, that's what money changers at airports do - if you're dumb enough to be unprepared and show up at an airport with a wad of foreign cash, that's when they screw you by giving you a terrible exchange rate. These companies pay a lot of rent to get these strategic locations in the airports, much more than say a money changer in a more quiet street in town. The actual exchange rate is £1 = US$1.26 this morning and whilst the pound has lost some value since Brexit, if you were to look at the way that exchange rate is going, it is moving up and down within a rather narrow range and in a worst case scenario, you may buy your holiday money when it is a few cents more expensive, but even then you're probably no more than a few pounds worse off - that's the cost of say a sandwich or a piece of cake at the airport. And if you can afford to travel to America for a holiday, having to spend extra few pound isn't going to really going to matter that much to you the same way you wouldn't hesitate to buy that sandwich or piece of cake at the airport if you happen to feel hungry whilst waiting for your flight. So no, the pound hasn't crashed - it is simply fluctuating and that is what currencies do regularly because of market forces.
This is why we have to take what we read in the media with a pinch of salt - we need to differentiate between what is a political story and something that is so major it impacts every single person in the country. Let's take a sweet story that has gone viral on social media for example: earlier this year, Brazilian teacher Bruno Paiva had no received any wages for three months and had ran into such financial difficulties that he ended up homeless. He was sleeping in the school where he was teaching when his students found out about his situation and raised about US$400 for him - of course, he was first in total disbelief and shock, then he started crying and that's when all his students rushed forward to hug him. It's the kind of feel-good story on social media designed to make you cry but one thing I did wonder at first was why Paiva had not been paid, was this because the Brazilian government is in turmoil and chaos after the election of a new president and this has in turn led to teachers not being paid on time? Actually, no. When I did a bit of digging, I realized that Paiva had took up the teaching position in the new school as maternity cover: there was a delay with the paperwork necessary to get Paiva onto the payroll system and so it was not like Paiva wasn't going to be paid at all - there was just an unexpected delay to the process and that's the kind of thing that had actually happened to me before in London. As you know, I'm self-employed and sometimes you can spend months chasing someone to pay an invoice - Paiva's pay was only delayed for three months, that's unfortunate but the reasons behind it were far more mundane than expected. Paiva did get his salary from the school eventually, once they did resolve the paperwork getting him onto the payroll.

The bottom line is that even in an otherwise peaceful country, all kinds of crap will happen to the people unexpectedly, even nice people like teacher Paiva had to suffer through this episode through no fault of his own. What is then people try to look for stories such as teachers not getting paid and selectively use it as 'evidence' of a country falling apart and daily life becoming impossible - yeah there are countries were daily life has become unbearable, this is the case in many Latin American countries like Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador - yes I'm talking about the 'human caravan' headed towards the American border are mostly desperate people fleeing crime, gang violence and abject poverty. But Brazil is not one of those countries where people are desperate to flee - granted it is not exactly a rich country, but it is at least relatively stable and people are just getting on with their daily lives even if they do encounter some difficulties and problems, such as in the case of teacher Paiva. There are people in the UK who will be suffering from all kinds of crap over the next few months: businesses will fail, people will lose their jobs and some people will become homeless; but it is important to note that crap like that will happen anyway regardless of whether or not Brexit goes ahead or not. But many people will claim that Brexit is the major factor for anything bad (or good - depending on your political allegiance) happening over the next few years and that is unhelpful as it simply distorts the whole picture.
I also need to point out that you can live in a prosperous country where the economy is booming, yet somehow, because you make certain poor choices based on bad judgement, you end up impoverishing yourself. Earlier this year, I covered the story of a man in Singapore David Heng who had deliberately impoverished his family by having 7 children despite being on a very low income job. Now the Heng family are living in one of the world's richest countries complete with both a booming economy, extremely low unemployment and one of the world's strongest currencies - yet they are living in poverty because of the really stupid decisions made by Heng. Living in a rich Asian country doesn't mean you will automatically become a crazy rich Asian: there are plenty of poor people in Singapore. So the Brexit saga will drag on and on and the key question is whether or not it would result in such a deep recession that people will see a considerable drop in their earnings leading to widespread hardship - just like the situation we are witnessing currently in Venezuela and Syria. Things will have to get pretty bad before the UK turns into the next Venezuela and until then, I suspect that things here will become much like America. The people of America are constantly bickering about politics as Trump does one dumb thing after another - sure people are going to get outraged and frustrated but at the end of the day, normal life still goes on and politics becomes like another reality TV show that people talk about. Brexit the reality TV show is pretty much going to go down that path and will cause far more of a stir on social media than on the streets on the country.

You can respond to that by asking me, "Alex, what makes you so confident that everything is going to be alright?" Well, my response to that is that no, I don't have a crystal to tell me that everything is going to be alright but what I do know is that how much I earn in 2019 has far more to do with the choices I make, the actions I take and how much I can sell. Furthermore, since I am a salesman dependent on my company creating brilliant financial instruments that people want to invest in, a lot of how things will go for me will depend on the decisions my boss takes and what kind of clients we deal with in the new year. The UK economy is the fifth largest economy in the world and that economy is made of loads of companies being really good at what they do. Venezuela's economy collapsed mostly because of a major fall in oil prices and they were overly reliant on oil exports - now whilst the UK has a little bit of North Sea oil left, but we don't have much natural resources to speak of - not much left anyway. So the British economy has to create value to earn money, mostly through the service economy which accounts for 80.2% of the British economy: many people think about the financial services industry which is of course an important part of the economy here, but there's also education, real estate, tourism, transport, communication, retail and the creative industries which all form part of this wider 'service sector' and it is by no accident that a relatively small country like the UK can be the fifth largest economy in the world (bigger than India, for example, which is a much bigger country both by land size and population). There are many good things about the British economy that has made it so robust and it is not going to all crumble away overnight just because of Brexit.
The fact is even in a worst case scenario of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal, the projections are for economic stagnation or a modest contraction of the economy for a few years. That's the worst case scenario which is akin to a deep recession, not unlike the one that we have experienced after the crash of 2008. On a more optimistic note, a recession would force the British economy to innovate and evolve a lot more quickly: the less profitable dinosaurs can be culled to be replaced by newer, more dynamic industries. The problem with the UK is that the labour unions are very strong and trying to modernize certain industries have been difficult - for example, machines and AI can do a lot of jobs that are done by people now. For example, back in the 1984 - 1985 there was the infamous miners' strike here in the UK - they demanded government subsidies to keep loss-making coal mines open because they didn't want things to change. Shutting the mines would mean thousands of miners becoming unemployed overnight and severely affecting entire mining communities. Mind you, coal miners had a pretty grim and difficult life in any case, these mining towns were never prosperous communities but some of the poorest places in the UK even when the mines were still open.  Thatcher stood her ground and didn't give in to the miners - the strike ended with the miners giving up when public support for the strike dwindled. Sure the short term effect of the closure of the mines did have significant impact on those communities, but the long term solution was to transform the UK into a far more high-tech service economy rather coal mining. A post-Brexit shock to the economy could give the British economy just the kick to the backside it needs to innovate quickly.

Personally, I voted for the UK to remain in the EU and the ideal outcome for me would be for the country to forget all about Brexit - but I know that's never going to happen given everything that has happened so far. All I am hoping for is that the next PM after Theresa May will be able to take us into the next chapter with far more foresight and lead us into a brighter future - personally, my first choice is Dominic Raab or maybe Sajid Javid as a second choice. I deeply despise both Boris Johnson and Michael Gove for the vile lies they told during the Brexit campaign whilst Jeremy Hunt and Amber Rudd just seem way too clueless. David Davis is way too old for the job at 69 and I don't think someone like Jacob Rees-Mogg will even stand a chance - he is popular within the Conservatives' core group of supporters but will have little appeal to the mainstream voter and he will most certainly be loathed by the working class for being unapologetically posh. However, it does look like Boris Johnson is the front runner if May quits after a year but the real question is who will be the next PM after the next general election? Some people have predicted that the Tories will make such a disaster of Brexit (let's face it, it is a poisoned chalice and a task that nobody can deliver successfully) that it may sway just enough voters to give Labour a chance, then our next PM will be Jeremy Corbyn. Now I'm not sure which is worse: PM Corbyn or PM Johnson - both prospects seem equally grim and horrific to me and I'm trying to decide which one of these two idiots would make a worse PM. It doesn't matter whether you're left or right wing: both options are just awful. That's a depressing thought and my cue to get back to work - I'll focus instead on something I have control over.
So that's it for now. If you have any questions about how things are going here in Brexit land, please feel free to leave a comment below. What do you think? Am I being too optimistic or is this the very reason why so many people are apathetic about politics? Who will be the next PM of the UK - who would you rather have as your PM? And what kind of Brexit are we going to get in 2019 and will yet another country leave the EU in 2019 or 2020? Many thanks for reading!



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