The No-Deal Catastrophe
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Title : The No-Deal Catastrophe
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Title : The No-Deal Catastrophe
link : The No-Deal Catastrophe
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Looted shops. Burning buildings. Pitched battles with the police. No, not memories of the 2011 London riots but chilling forecasts made by Amazon's contingency planning unit in the event of a no-deal Brexit, if reports are to be believed. The American tax-dodging, union-denying, worker-crushing behemoth does, after all, have an interest to declare. In the event of major disorder, an Amazon distribution centre might prove a tempting target for distribution of another kind. Though, to be fair and in their own terms, they're just being sensible. Because a no deal Brexit is increasingly likely.
Well, yes, you can expect me to say this. After all, the analyses made here don't provide cosy take homes. Especially when Theresa May's position, now modded by the tax haven mavens of the European Research Group, is incoherent and unlikely to fly in Brussels. But if I'm too biased a source for you, how about we listen to the new Foreign Secretary instead? Pathetically heaping blame on EU negotiators, Jeremy Hunt claims we face the very possibility of no deal "by accident". Yes, Jeremy. It was the EU's fault it took two years for your government to come up with a negotiating position. It is the EU's fault that Theresa May decided to trigger the process for leaving the EU without anything apart from a soundbite to rely on. And it was the EU's fault that the Tory majority she had, which wasn't ideal but better than what May has to deal with now, was pissed away by a hubristic general election she didn't have to call.
Nevertheless, Jacob Rees-Mogg has dismissed Amazon's concerns. They're absurd, he says. Whose right? Well, they're not as fanciful as Mogg supposes. Market economies might appear to be forces of nature, but they're not. Markets are the products of purposeful social activity by human beings and their machines much like any other field of social action. More than just transactional relations, the movement of commodities across a national territory, let alone a supranational entity like the EU, rests upon a legal infrastructure as essential to mature capitalist economies as physical infrastructure. What Mogg, the ERG, and the stupidity of the Prime Minister and her "team" are doing is seeding this infrastructure with demolition charges. At 11pm on 29th March next year, unless there is a deal in the offing so the UK can immediately transition to the, well, transition period, that legal infrastructure will be blown sky high. Protocols covering common standards, tariffs, contracts, the agreements that keep planes flying into and out of the UK, the boats, the ferries, the cars and passengers trundling off the Eurostar, the goods coming into and flowing out of the country, no deal means no deal for all of this. The bombs placed by the Tories in the legal infrastructure will go off and take years to rebuild and replace with new trade deals. The UK will be damaged just as assuredly as blowing up its ports, uprooting the rail network, and dynamiting the roads.
Asked about this on Andrew Marr, the new Brexit secretary Dominic Raab said the government had plans for all eventualities. Hardly reassuring noises. With a no deal scenario, trade can proceed but will be liable for hefty tariffs. Forget the fantastical gibbering of the hard Brexiteers, trade on WTO rules means the destruction of UK supply chains built up across the EU. And what goes up with them is the remainder of the UK's manufacturing base. And there is also the small matter of the UK's food supply. For well over a century these islands have been unable to feed itself, and so the sudden imposition of tariffs means rising prices - assuming they can get off at the ports in the first place.
This might not come to pass. Everyone except for the most degenerate of Brexiteers hopes it does not happen. But if, because of Brexit, we are facing food shortages. If the UK economy grinds to a halt. If the hard border returns to Ireland. If Britain's service industry, some 80% of its economy, cannot trade with the EU and the rest of the world on current terms, if the crisis in the Tory party ends up inflicting serious damage to living standards, forces rationing of any sort, and drives an exponential explosion of unemployment, it's just possible the contingency planning Amazon are undertaking might be very modest indeed.
Well, yes, you can expect me to say this. After all, the analyses made here don't provide cosy take homes. Especially when Theresa May's position, now modded by the tax haven mavens of the European Research Group, is incoherent and unlikely to fly in Brussels. But if I'm too biased a source for you, how about we listen to the new Foreign Secretary instead? Pathetically heaping blame on EU negotiators, Jeremy Hunt claims we face the very possibility of no deal "by accident". Yes, Jeremy. It was the EU's fault it took two years for your government to come up with a negotiating position. It is the EU's fault that Theresa May decided to trigger the process for leaving the EU without anything apart from a soundbite to rely on. And it was the EU's fault that the Tory majority she had, which wasn't ideal but better than what May has to deal with now, was pissed away by a hubristic general election she didn't have to call.
Nevertheless, Jacob Rees-Mogg has dismissed Amazon's concerns. They're absurd, he says. Whose right? Well, they're not as fanciful as Mogg supposes. Market economies might appear to be forces of nature, but they're not. Markets are the products of purposeful social activity by human beings and their machines much like any other field of social action. More than just transactional relations, the movement of commodities across a national territory, let alone a supranational entity like the EU, rests upon a legal infrastructure as essential to mature capitalist economies as physical infrastructure. What Mogg, the ERG, and the stupidity of the Prime Minister and her "team" are doing is seeding this infrastructure with demolition charges. At 11pm on 29th March next year, unless there is a deal in the offing so the UK can immediately transition to the, well, transition period, that legal infrastructure will be blown sky high. Protocols covering common standards, tariffs, contracts, the agreements that keep planes flying into and out of the UK, the boats, the ferries, the cars and passengers trundling off the Eurostar, the goods coming into and flowing out of the country, no deal means no deal for all of this. The bombs placed by the Tories in the legal infrastructure will go off and take years to rebuild and replace with new trade deals. The UK will be damaged just as assuredly as blowing up its ports, uprooting the rail network, and dynamiting the roads.
Asked about this on Andrew Marr, the new Brexit secretary Dominic Raab said the government had plans for all eventualities. Hardly reassuring noises. With a no deal scenario, trade can proceed but will be liable for hefty tariffs. Forget the fantastical gibbering of the hard Brexiteers, trade on WTO rules means the destruction of UK supply chains built up across the EU. And what goes up with them is the remainder of the UK's manufacturing base. And there is also the small matter of the UK's food supply. For well over a century these islands have been unable to feed itself, and so the sudden imposition of tariffs means rising prices - assuming they can get off at the ports in the first place.
This might not come to pass. Everyone except for the most degenerate of Brexiteers hopes it does not happen. But if, because of Brexit, we are facing food shortages. If the UK economy grinds to a halt. If the hard border returns to Ireland. If Britain's service industry, some 80% of its economy, cannot trade with the EU and the rest of the world on current terms, if the crisis in the Tory party ends up inflicting serious damage to living standards, forces rationing of any sort, and drives an exponential explosion of unemployment, it's just possible the contingency planning Amazon are undertaking might be very modest indeed.
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You are now reading the article The No-Deal Catastrophe With link address https://newstoday-ok.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-no-deal-catastrophe.html