The Right after the Brexit Deal
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Title : The Right after the Brexit Deal
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Title : The Right after the Brexit Deal
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After wallowing in a lake of Brexit tears (Brexitears?), it's natural to survey the immediate political aftermath following this morning's joint press conference with Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker. The ridiculous fool and money counsellor to the global rich, John Redwood, was spitting feathers and thinks crashing out of the EU is better than the agreement. Arron Banks, the man with the magical pockets, called for a leadership challenge: "This traitorous, lily-livered embarrassment of a Prime Minister has just overseen the biggest sell out of this country ...". I suppose it takes one to know one. And Nigel Farage: "This is not a deal, it's a capitulation." Nothing from Rees-Mogg yet, but as he was cheering the DUP t'other day for "saving Brexit", you can imagine his day was somewhat ruined.
Of course, while this is being heralded as a breakthrough deal it is no such thing. The agreement reached with the EU27 on the UK's financial commitments, the status of resident EU citizens, and the Irish border was about preparing the ground for the main event, which is the putative trade deal May is desperate beyond desperate to get settled. And there is also the small matter of the transitional deal. We know the UK government's position. i.e. A bridging arrangement to last around two years to ease the UK's decaying economy into the choppy waters outside the EU's boat. And while, assuming sensible sensibleness continues, this would be in the EU's interest too its implementation cannot be guaranteed. Indeed if the Tories had sense, which the double calamity of May and David Davis have shown scant evidence of hitherto, they would prioritise the basic principles, commitments and undertaking of the transitional arrangements first and then negotiate the subsequent deal at leisure. Then again, the longer this drags on, the greater the uncertainty this introduces into the deals the EU want to fix up with the US, among others.
Still, May can breathe a sigh of relief. The chaos that began this week is temporarily tucked into bed, and all is well with the world. Progress has been made. Except it could unwind very quickly. Despite getting up in the Commons on Wednesday and declaring for the nth time the UK is leaving the single market and the customs union, judging by the report - Paragraph 49 to be exact - we're not. The avoidance of a hard border, the protection of the Northern Irish economy, and the maintenance of the internal integrity of the UK (i.e. no customs border in the Irish Sea) looks unsolvable outside of the EU. Therefore we have "in the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement." Exactly as predicted. All that remains are the fudgey words.
Of course, while this is being heralded as a breakthrough deal it is no such thing. The agreement reached with the EU27 on the UK's financial commitments, the status of resident EU citizens, and the Irish border was about preparing the ground for the main event, which is the putative trade deal May is desperate beyond desperate to get settled. And there is also the small matter of the transitional deal. We know the UK government's position. i.e. A bridging arrangement to last around two years to ease the UK's decaying economy into the choppy waters outside the EU's boat. And while, assuming sensible sensibleness continues, this would be in the EU's interest too its implementation cannot be guaranteed. Indeed if the Tories had sense, which the double calamity of May and David Davis have shown scant evidence of hitherto, they would prioritise the basic principles, commitments and undertaking of the transitional arrangements first and then negotiate the subsequent deal at leisure. Then again, the longer this drags on, the greater the uncertainty this introduces into the deals the EU want to fix up with the US, among others.
Still, May can breathe a sigh of relief. The chaos that began this week is temporarily tucked into bed, and all is well with the world. Progress has been made. Except it could unwind very quickly. Despite getting up in the Commons on Wednesday and declaring for the nth time the UK is leaving the single market and the customs union, judging by the report - Paragraph 49 to be exact - we're not. The avoidance of a hard border, the protection of the Northern Irish economy, and the maintenance of the internal integrity of the UK (i.e. no customs border in the Irish Sea) looks unsolvable outside of the EU. Therefore we have "in the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement." Exactly as predicted. All that remains are the fudgey words.
What now for our Brexiteers? It depends how much they can stir up the Brexit hardcore the Tories managed to win back from UKIP. So far, the Daily Mail are happy. Rejoice! We're On Our Way! screeches their Saturday front page. The Express in contrast go full on Farage. After all, why write anything when you can transcribe him verbatim? They also splash on US Cold War time travel experiments, which to be fair is more credible than their political coverage. The Sun is more sanguine with 'Done Deal', followed by "Theresa May faces Tory backlash". But they show no evidence of a backlash. They quote Redwood's tweet, but then wheel on the execrable Iain Duncan Smith to offer a lukewarm statement in support. So far, Tory Brexiteers are sticking close. It's a wonder what a single Survation poll can do.
How about those outside exalted Tory circles? As per the politics fatigue large numbers of voters are feeling, most leavers are probably happy to let May get on with it. Yes, it involves climb downs and humiliation but Brexit is not getting subverted. Flags will be waved and "Up Yours, Delors" murmured come 29th March, 2019. A hardcore minority are likely to think otherwise, but it's a question of whether this is enough to stir them into some sort of action. Were Farage still at UKIP's helm, then possibly. However, the conditions of UKIP's rise - notably the consistent support for their position by Britain's biggest right wing titles, the normalisation of their "novelty" politics via the broadcast media, the charismatic charlatan - are not present for a repeat performance. The fact the name of UKIP's new leader, Henry Bolton, doesn't immediately come to mind shows how far they've fallen. This means we won't see much movement in the polls from the Tories' present coalition, more's the pity.
Then again, perhaps not. As we have seen, all throughout Brexit Theresa May, just like her predecessor, has been driven by the short-term interests of the Tory Party. Historians will gawp in wonder at how the government of a leading liberal democracy consistently put favourable editorials and polling numbers above the interests of the class they represent and the system they profess to defend. If May's Brexit right were proper frothing up a fury, and the polls started showing a fracturing of the Tory vote and a bleed of a few percentage points UKIP's way, then we could see a lurch back into hard Brexit/no deal territory again. Just as winging it and short-termism accidentally finds us on the threshold of a potentially soft Brexit, Tory decadence might place us back in the mire.
This one's going to run-and-run. But it's worth observing that now the UK is signed up to the customs union in all but name, the cherished booby prize of the Brexiteers - Britain's freedom to strike bilateral trade agreements outside the EU - is looking like a fantasy, and may become a hill for them to die on later. Also, immigration from within the EU is up in the air, despite the agreement on domiciled citizens, and that is dependent on the trade deal. Anything resembling a liberalish agreement on movement, which is likely to be a condition of the frictionless trade promised, is all set on turning the Brexiteer right rabid. So for May, the immediate crisis is over, assuming no one prominent goes rogue over the weekend, but the potential for huge political damage is yet to be surmounted.
How about those outside exalted Tory circles? As per the politics fatigue large numbers of voters are feeling, most leavers are probably happy to let May get on with it. Yes, it involves climb downs and humiliation but Brexit is not getting subverted. Flags will be waved and "Up Yours, Delors" murmured come 29th March, 2019. A hardcore minority are likely to think otherwise, but it's a question of whether this is enough to stir them into some sort of action. Were Farage still at UKIP's helm, then possibly. However, the conditions of UKIP's rise - notably the consistent support for their position by Britain's biggest right wing titles, the normalisation of their "novelty" politics via the broadcast media, the charismatic charlatan - are not present for a repeat performance. The fact the name of UKIP's new leader, Henry Bolton, doesn't immediately come to mind shows how far they've fallen. This means we won't see much movement in the polls from the Tories' present coalition, more's the pity.
Then again, perhaps not. As we have seen, all throughout Brexit Theresa May, just like her predecessor, has been driven by the short-term interests of the Tory Party. Historians will gawp in wonder at how the government of a leading liberal democracy consistently put favourable editorials and polling numbers above the interests of the class they represent and the system they profess to defend. If May's Brexit right were proper frothing up a fury, and the polls started showing a fracturing of the Tory vote and a bleed of a few percentage points UKIP's way, then we could see a lurch back into hard Brexit/no deal territory again. Just as winging it and short-termism accidentally finds us on the threshold of a potentially soft Brexit, Tory decadence might place us back in the mire.
This one's going to run-and-run. But it's worth observing that now the UK is signed up to the customs union in all but name, the cherished booby prize of the Brexiteers - Britain's freedom to strike bilateral trade agreements outside the EU - is looking like a fantasy, and may become a hill for them to die on later. Also, immigration from within the EU is up in the air, despite the agreement on domiciled citizens, and that is dependent on the trade deal. Anything resembling a liberalish agreement on movement, which is likely to be a condition of the frictionless trade promised, is all set on turning the Brexiteer right rabid. So for May, the immediate crisis is over, assuming no one prominent goes rogue over the weekend, but the potential for huge political damage is yet to be surmounted.
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